Wednesday 26 April 2017

GBP/USD exchange rate still above $1.28, but for how long?

The GBP/USD cross continues to trade around $1.28 this morning, with the currency pair bouncing between $1.28 and $1.2840 for the third consecutive day.

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The week so far has been relatively subdued for the pound/dollar exchange rate, as markets instead focused on the result of round one of the French elections.

Sterling has dropped around a cent since Theresa May announced plans to hold a general election on the 8th June, as investors sit tight and wait for any developments of the UK's exit from the European Union.

GBP/USD graph




Since Theresa May invoked Article 50 last month, little has been done as EU negotiators wanted to wait until after the French elections.  However, things are now beginning to move forward and we could start to see some volatility for sterling pairs in the coming weeks as focus shifts back to the UK and Brexit.

On Saturday there will be an EU summit, which the markets will be watching closely as the initial draft guidelines for the Brexit negotiations will be finalised.

Theresa May is also set to meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker and Michael Barnier, the EU's top Brexit negotiator next Wednesday.

Before that, we will have a key data announcement from the UK which could cause some heightened volatility for the pound. On Friday the Office for National Statistics will release the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for quarter one.

The GDP reading is the broadest measure of economic activity and is the main gauge of the UK economy's health.

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