Monday, 7 November 2016

How will the U.S Presidental Election influence the GBP/USD exchange rate?

The pound has given up some of the ground it made against the U.S. dollar last week, after reports released late last night confirmed Hilary Clinton will not be facing criminal charges over the use of her private email server.

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After climbing to a high of $1.2553 last week the GBP/USD cross has fallen over a per cent with the currency pair now trading back at $1.2410.

GBP/USD graph

The news relating to Hilary Clinton has given the dollar a boost this morning as markets now see her as the clear favourite to win tomorrows election, investors had started to dump the dollar last week after Donald Trump began to narrow the gap in the polls.

What will happen to the GBP/USD cross if Clinton wins?

It would now seem as though the market has already started pricing in a Clinton victory, so if Clinton does win we might not see dollar strengthen a huge amount on Wednesday morning. A lot will depend on the polls over the course of today though, and if Trump does start clawing back some ground over the next few hours we could see investors start to re-position themselves.

What if Trump wins?

If that were to happen I would expect to see the dollar plummet in value in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Not only because of the uncertainty it would create but rumours have been circulating that it could also put a Federal Reserve rate hike on hold next month.

If the GBP/USD cross maintains its current level ahead of the election result then I can easily see the GBP/USD cross break the $1.26 mark if Trump is elected.


Are you thinking of buying or selling dollars?

If you are looking to buy or sell dollars in the coming day and are worried about the impact the elections could have on your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

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