Thursday, 20 October 2016

GBP/USD forecast and update

The pound has given up some of the ground it made against the dollar yesterday with the currency pair falling back below $1.23.

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After rising to an eight day high of $1.2324 yesterday afternoon, the GBP/USD cross has fallen around half a cent and is currently trading at $1.2267.

GBP/USD graph

The pounds value has dipped after data published this morning showed UK retail sales were down in September.  According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shoppers held off from purchasing last month, with figures suggesting weak sales of clothing, footwear and food.

The amount of goods purchased remained flat compared to August but the pound lost ground as economists had predicted a rise from 0.0% to 0.3%.

It is thought the warmer weather in September is to blame for the lack of sales, but some analysts are worried the falling pound and a rising inflation figure could start to impact future trade.

Watch out for the ECB.

Later on today the European Central Bank (ECB) will be holding a press conference, which could end up effecting the GBP/USD cross. A few weeks ago the ECB hinted they could start to unwind their stimulus programme which is due to expire in March.

If President Mario Draghi confirms the central bank will start to cut the amount of money they are currently pumping into the Eurozone, we could see the euro strengthen which in turn could see the dollar weaken.

It could also have the opposite effect, if the ECB start to back track we could see the dollar strengthen as investors turn their attention back to the safe-haven currency.

Are you thinking of buying or selling dollars?

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As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer, click here or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065.

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