Friday 21 February 2014

GBP/USD exchange rate update

Good afternoon,

Sterling suffered another dip against the dollar this morning as UK retail sales figures missed expectations. The pound lost almost half a cent when the numbers were released but soon clawed back the lost ground as existing home sales figures from the States also fell short.

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Although the UK economy has been performing well in recent months, todays retail figures (which showed sales had dropped by 1.5% in January), coupled with the rise in unemployment we witnessed on Wednesday, prove we should not get to carried away with Sterling's recent rise.

I think the pound has got off lightly this week, as it stands Sterling is only down just over a cent since trading opened on Monday. Had the U.S. met some of their key economic data releases we could have easily seen exchange rates fall back below $1.65.

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It just goes to prove just how difficult it is to try and predict which way the FX markets are going to move. I don't think anyone expected unemployment in the UK to rise this week and if we see a surprise drop in the UK GDP estimate on Wednesday I would expect to see even more volatility.

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