Wednesday 11 September 2013

GBP/USD exchange rates hit eight month high

Good afternoon,

GBP/USD exchange rates jumped to the highest levels since early February this morning following stronger than forecast UK unemployment figures. Rates increased from $1.5720 to reach a high of $1.5811 taking sterling gains against the dollar to 4.65% in just over a month. To put the improvement into monetary terms, a £200,000 trade will now see you receive around $14,000 more compared to the same trade booked on the 2nd August. For more information on live market prices click here.













The UK economy continued on its recent upward trend today after better than expected unemployment numbers. Since the Bank of England announced they would not look to amend interest rates until unemployment in the UK reaches 7% market players are now paying extra attention to the monthly unemployment figures. It had been forecast there would be no change to the current level of 7.8% but with the data release showing unemployment had fallen to 7.7% the pound quickly strengthened pushing GBP/USD to a fresh high.

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There was more good news as an unexpected drop in the number of people claiming Job-Seekers Allowance helped boost Sterling's performance. Official figures showed 32,600 fewer people are now claiming unemployment benefits compared to last month and are another indication that the UK economy is on the road to recovery.

So what does the future hold?

Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball but the pound is certainly in a stronger position compared to a month ago. If the UK continues to improve we could well see GBP/USD exchange rates push close to $1.60, although how long that will last will depend on when the U.S Federal Reserve start to wind down their current bond buying programme.

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) due to make a statement next week there is a chance we may get an indication to when tapering may begin which is likely to cause some market volatility in the build up to the announcement.

I have said a few times in recent weeks that once we know when tapering will start the dollar will start to strengthen, wiping out some of recent gains. How far it will drive down exchange rates is anyone's guess but with GBP/USD currently sitting at an eight month high it is certainly a good time to buy dollars and secure your rate of exchange.

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