Will the pound go up or down?

The GBP/USD cross had dipped back under $1.24 this morning as markets wait in anticipation for the governments autumn statement, which is due to be released at 12:30 GMT.

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So far today the pound has lost nearly 0.3 per cent against the dollar, with the currency pair falling from $1.2406 to a low of $1.2370, as you can see from the graph below.

GBP/USD graph.

This morning's move means the GBP/USD cross has now fallen over one per cent since hitting a high of $1.2511 on Monday, which in monetary terms means purchasing $300,000 this morning now costs around £2,700 more than it did two days ago.

How could today's autumn statement impact the pound?

At the moment there seems to be a split amongst analysts as to whether the pound will be receive any kind of boost from Phillip Hammond's statement this afternoon.

The statement will give us an updated economic outlook, and will provide us with an insight to the government's budget for the year ahead, projected borrowing, and their objectives.

It will also include comments on the latest economic forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR will provide forecasts for up to five years into the future but with Brexit looming these predictions could have an impact on the pounds value this afternoon.

If the growth forecasts are cut drastically as a result of the uncertainty the UK economy is currently facing, then we could see the pound suffer. However, if Mr Hammond announces the government are going to increase spending in an attempt to boost the economy, then it is possible the pound could claw back the ground it has lost over the past couple of days.

Are you looking to buy or sell dollars?

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

 

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The pound holding onto yesterday's gains against the dollar.

The pound is holding around $1.2450 against the dollar this morning, with markets still taking stock of yesterday's surprise move which saw the GBP/USD cross climb over two cents during the London trading session.

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GBP/USD graph

The spike we saw yesterday caught everyone off guard, and in my last post I mentioned the rise was a bit of a mystery as I could not find anything to support why the pound was climbing across the board.

It would now seem the pound and UK economy received a huge boost following some comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

What did Theresa May say?

Theresa May gave investors some much needed confidence as she vowed to address the growing concerns that the UK could fall of a "cliff edge" when it leaves the euro bloc, while also hinting at some kind of transitional deal.

Back in September May suggested she would pursue a "hard Brexit" which would see Britain give up its access to the single market. However, her comments yesterday lean towards a change in stance, with markets now hopeful of a softer and slower approach.

Why would a transitional agreement be better for the pound?

It would give the UK time to create a new trading agreement with the European Union, once the formal negotiations have been completed. It is likely Britain will still have some kind of access to the single market while a new agreement is established, and removes some of the uncertainty over the long term impact Brexit will have on the UK economy.

 

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If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and are worried the impact Brexit could have on your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

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Why is the pound climbing against the dollar?

In the last hour the pound has surged across the board, with the GBP/USD cross rising around a cent to briefly hit $1.25.

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Although the pair has moved slightly away from the session high, the currency pair is still trading at $1.2470, around a cent and a half higher than when markets opened this morning.

 

GBP/USD graph

Why has the pound risen?

So far its a bit of mystery, there has been no economic data releases or political announcements this afternoon. A few of the major banks have already come out and said there is no clear reason as to why the pound is currently climbing.

What does the move mean for you?

If you are looking at buying dollars then this afternoon's unexpected rise will come as welcome news. If we look at the gains in monetary terms, purchasing $300,000 now costs around £3000 less than it did at 0945 (GMT) this morning.

Buying or selling dollars?

The move over the course of today shows just how unpredictable the currency markets can be and how quickly things can change.

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

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Sterling starting to give up gains against the U.S. dollar.

Friday saw the GBP/USD cross fall to its lowest levels for over two weeks, with the currency pair ending the week trading just above $1.23.

 

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Very little has changed during the first few hours of this mornings session, although the pound has gained slightly to leave the GBP/USD cross sitting at $1.2339 at the time of writing.

 

GBP/USD graph.

Following Donald Trumps shock election victory the pound has been benefitting from a shift in focus as investors started to concentrate on the potential economic fallout in the U.S. and the upcoming elections across Europe.

The change in mentality saw the GBP/USD cross climb as high as $1.2638 on the 11th November, but since then the pound has been gradually giving up the gains, and has now lost around 2.5 per cent in the last ten days.

A large proportion of the loss happened towards the back end of last week as the U.S. dollar surged against the majority of its counterparts. A raft of positive economic data from the States last week added to expectations of a higher inflation reading and a second rate hike from the Federal Reserve when they conclude their two day meeting on the 14th December.

 

What will a rate hike in the U.S do to GBP/USD?

If the Federal Reserve take any action next month I imagine we will see the dollar strengthen across the board. An increase to the Fed's benchmark rate will give investors a higher return on their investments, so its likely we will see increased flows into the dollar shortly after the announcement.

It is difficult to say how much the dollar will increase by, but when the Fed raised interest rates last year the dollar gained over two per cent against the pound, so its possible we could see a similar move next month.

Do you need to buy or sell dollars?

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

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U.S. dollar rises after Fed hint at rate hike

The GBP/USD cross has fallen away from the highs we witnessed yesterday morning, with the currency pair falling from $1.25 to its current level of $1.2404.

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As I mentioned in my last post, there were a number of key eco-stats and speeches coming from the U.S yesterday, and the results helped the dollar to strengthen across the board.

GBP/USD graph

Positive day for the U.S.

The latest Building Permit, Housing Starts and Unemployment Claims all beat expectations, while inflation in the U.S. came in as predicted and helped the dollar put an end to the pounds advances.

The dollar then received another boost as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified in Washington. After almost a year of dovish comments, Ms Yellen finally hinted the Fed are likely to raise interest rates while speaking in front of the Economic Committee.

Although Yellen held back from saying the central bank will raise rates at their December policy meeting, she did confirm a rate hike was coming "relatively soon".

Judging by how the dollar had gained against its counterparts since yesterday afternoon, it would seem the markets are now starting to price in a rate hike on the 14th December. However, we shouldn't get too carried away, as we have seen this kind of reaction a couple of times over the course of this year.

Yellen's comment of "relatively soon" does not guarantee a rate hike next month, and if the Fed fail to take any action in December then we will probably see the dollar weaken significantly.

Do you need to buy or sell dollars?

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

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Pound climbing towards $1.25

This morning has seen the pound receive a welcome boost, after the latest UK retail sales figures for October beat expectations.

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The GBP/USD cross has risen over three quarters of a cent so far this morning, with the currency pair climbing from $1.2418 to $1.2498 as the graph below shows.

GBP/USD graph

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics at 0930 (GMT) showed last months retail sales had increased by 1.9%, against the predicted level of only 0.5% and the news has immediately caused the pound to rise across the board.

This mornings data release has once again shown the UK economy is performing better than expected in the wake of the country's decision to leave the European Union. If it were not for Brexit weighing down the pound, I am sure the GBP/USD cross would be sitting comfortably above $1.50 at the moment.

Busy day for the States

This afternoon sees a raft of key data releases and speeches coming from the U.S, and all of them could have an impact on the value of the dollar. We kick things off at 13:30 (GMT) with the release of the latest Building Permit, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment claims and House Start numbers, and if the actual figures deviates from predicted levels we could see the GBP/USD cross experience some heightened volatility.

As I mentioned above there are also a couple of speeches today that investors will be following very closely. First up is Federal Open Market Committee member William Dudley, speaking at the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance in New York.

Last but not least is Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Ms Yellen is due to testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington. Her testimony is probably the most important event of the day as it is the first time we have heard from Yellen since Donald Trumps surprise election victory last week.

All eyes and ears will be on Chair Yellen as her statement could provide us with clues about whether the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next month.

I will of course keep you updates about how today's events unfold.

Looking to buy or sell dollars? 

If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

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What has happened to the GBP/USD exchange rate today?

The pound has remained relatively flat against the dollar this morning despite the UK unemployment rate falling to 4.8%, its lowest level since 2005.

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Under normal circumstances the positive reading would have seen the pound strengthen across the board. However, with politics and the uncertainty of over the UK's exit from the European Union still concerning investors, the markets have barely reacted to yet another positive piece of UK economic data.

GBP/USD graph

GBP/USD holding above $1.24.

After dipping back into the $1.23's yesterday, on the back of the leaked memo and weaker inflation reading, the pound clawed back the lost ground after the UK government quickly moved to deny any knowledge of the document.

As we approached the open of the London trading session this morning, the GBP/USD cross was in touching distance of $1.25, but with traders focusing on the risks the UK economy faces with Brexit looming, the pound has edged away from this morning's high and is currently trading at $1.2450.

 

Will GBP/USD climb any higher today?

If it does, I think it's unlikely the move will be down to the pound strengthening. Although sterling has risen in value over the past week, any further gains will be limited due to Brexit uncertainty.

We could however see this afternoons U.S. data impact the value of the dollar. The release of the latest Crude Oil Inventories, Industrial Production figures (month on month) and Capacity Utilization Rate could easily see the dollar weaken if the numbers miss the predicted level, which in turn could see GBP/USD push back towards $1.25.

 

Do you need to buy or sell dollars?

If you are looking to buy or sell dollars in the weeks or months and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

As a specialist in currency exchange, I have a wide range of tools at my disposal to help protect you against adverse market movements or target a rate of exchange that might not be currently available.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by click on the link below.

 

Click here to complete the contact form.