Thursday, 17 November 2016

Pound climbing towards $1.25

This morning has seen the pound receive a welcome boost, after the latest UK retail sales figures for October beat expectations.

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The GBP/USD cross has risen over three quarters of a cent so far this morning, with the currency pair climbing from $1.2418 to $1.2498 as the graph below shows.

GBP/USD graph




Figures released by the Office for National Statistics at 0930 (GMT) showed last months retail sales had increased by 1.9%, against the predicted level of only 0.5% and the news has immediately caused the pound to rise across the board.

This mornings data release has once again shown the UK economy is performing better than expected in the wake of the country's decision to leave the European Union. If it were not for Brexit weighing down the pound, I am sure the GBP/USD cross would be sitting comfortably above $1.50 at the moment.

Busy day for the States


This afternoon sees a raft of key data releases and speeches coming from the U.S, and all of them could have an impact on the value of the dollar. We kick things off at 13:30 (GMT) with the release of the latest Building Permit, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment claims and House Start numbers, and if the actual figures deviates from predicted levels we could see the GBP/USD cross experience some heightened volatility.

As I mentioned above there are also a couple of speeches today that investors will be following very closely. First up is Federal Open Market Committee member William Dudley, speaking at the Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance in New York.

Last but not least is Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Ms Yellen is due to testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington. Her testimony is probably the most important event of the day as it is the first time we have heard from Yellen since Donald Trumps surprise election victory last week.

All eyes and ears will be on Chair Yellen as her statement could provide us with clues about whether the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next month.

I will of course keep you updates about how today's events unfold.

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