GBP/USD exchange rate update

Good afternoon,

Sterling suffered another dip against the dollar this morning as UK retail sales figures missed expectations. The pound lost almost half a cent when the numbers were released but soon clawed back the lost ground as existing home sales figures from the States also fell short.

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Although the UK economy has been performing well in recent months, todays retail figures (which showed sales had dropped by 1.5% in January), coupled with the rise in unemployment we witnessed on Wednesday, prove we should not get to carried away with Sterling's recent rise.

I think the pound has got off lightly this week, as it stands Sterling is only down just over a cent since trading opened on Monday. Had the U.S. met some of their key economic data releases we could have easily seen exchange rates fall back below $1.65.

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It just goes to prove just how difficult it is to try and predict which way the FX markets are going to move. I don't think anyone expected unemployment in the UK to rise this week and if we see a surprise drop in the UK GDP estimate on Wednesday I would expect to see even more volatility.

If you are looking to buy or sell dollars in the next few months it is important to know what tools are available to help you make the most from your transfer. That's where I come in, with a range of currency contracts at my disposal I can help you secure a rate of exchange for up to two years into the future, or look to protect you from any adverse market movements.

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GBP/USD exchange rates recover after disappointing UK unemployment figures

Good afternoon,

Sterling suffered at the hands of the UK unemployment figures this morning as GBP/USD exchange rates fell almost as cent from $1.6730 down to $1.6640. The gains however, were short-lived for the dollar as the pound took advantage of some weaker than forecast data releases from the States in the afternoon.

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For the first time since April 2013 the UK saw a rise in unemployment with the number unexpectedly rising from 7.1% to 7.2%. The figures had an immediate impact on the FX markets but the damage was limited with the news that the number of people claiming jobseekers had fallen for the 15th consecutive month.

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Today's disappointing unemployment numbers have maybe taken some of the gloss UK economies recent upturn. However, with the States struggling to put together a good run of economic data releases it doesn't look like the pound is going to come under any pressure from the dollar anytime soon.

So what does that mean for exchange rates?

If todays unemployment figures are only a blip in the UK recovery then the door is still open for the GBP/USD cross to keep on rising. It would not come as a surprise if we saw exchange rates break $1.70 especially if we have a repeat of the U.S debt ceiling fiasco we witnessed last year. With the temporary plan that U.S. officials put in place last October due to expire at the end of February the dollar could easily lose more ground against the pound, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's attempts to wind up its stimulus package.

Unless we see the UK recovery stall and the FED decide to end the on-going stimulus programme, I think it is unlikely we will see GBP/USD rates back below $1.60 anytime soon. Of course it impossible to predict but it just seems the pound has more going for it than the dollar at the moment.

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GBP/USD rates reach fresh high

Good afternoon,

Sterling has continued to surge against the dollar in the last few days and since my last post GBP/USD exchange rates have risen to their highest level since November 2009. When trading opened this morning the GBP/USD cross had climbed to reach $1.6820, a rise of nearly 2.5% in the last seven days. To put the move into monetary terms a £200,000 trade will now see you receive around $7,900 more compared to the same trade last Monday.

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With a the U.S markets closed due to Presidents day and no economic data releases coming out of the UK today was always going to be particularly quite. What has come to light over the past few days is just how well the UK is performing against most of the developed economies. Although the pound has benefitted from a run of strong data releases there also seems to be a renewed confidence about the UK and Sterling and most of the credit should go to Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

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When Mr Carney took over from Sir Mervyn King in July he implemented a forward guidance policy regarding interest rates and the decision meant investors have had a clear picture of what the Bank of England are trying to achieve. It certainly seems to be working and with improving conditions in many of the UK economic sectors the pound has gained over 13% against the dollar since Mr Carney came into power.

Although it has been a quite start to the week in terms of data releases there are a number of key events to look out for which could impact the GBP/USD cross. This week sees the release of the latest UK unemployment figures as well as the minutes from the BoE monetary policy meeting from the start of the month. In the States we will see the latest unemployment claims and building permit numbers as well as hearing from FED Chair Janet Yellen as she testifies on the semi-annual monetary report.

All of the above could cause some movement in the FX market and I will of course keep you updated as the events unfold. In the meantime if you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and want to ensure you are making the most from your currency transfer use the link below or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065 for a free no-obligation currency consultation.

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GBP/USD exchange rates gain over a cent.

Good afternoon,

It has been a strong day for Sterling and the UK economy with the pound gaining strength against most of its major counterparts. Against the dollar Sterling rose by over a cent, climbing from a low of $1.6425 to a high of $1.6584. The move means the pound has now clawed back over 1.75% against dollar in just over a week, climbing back towards the two and a half year high we witnessed at the end of January.

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So what caused todays spike?

In Monday's post I mentioned that one of the key events that could impact exchange rates this week would be the Bank of England (BoE) inflation report and that was exactly what happened. A few weeks ago BoE governor Mark Carney did his best to try and talk the pound down by saying he did not want Sterling's strong performance to start effecting UK exports, which have gone a long way in aiding the recent UK economic recovery. This mornings speech gave Mr Carney the ideal platform to once again devalue the pound and a few of my team (me included) thought it could be well be on the cards.

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If fact, the opposite happened and Mr Carney was very positive in what he had to say. With his forward guidance policy clearly working, today's speech highlighted that the central bank are in no rush to raise interest rates even though unemployment is falling faster than they could have ever expected.

Mr Carney stated that he and his fellow policymakers will now be looking at other economic indicators and not just unemployment before they review a rise in interest rates and went on to say that when rates do eventually start to rise it will be done gradually.

These comments coupled with a rise in the UK growth forecast for 2014 have given investors extra confidence that there will be no knee jerk reactions from the BoE in the near future, and the pound certainly took full advantage.

Today's move once again gives the pound the edge of the dollar and unless we see some positive reaction from the U.S. government and Federal Reserve in the coming months the potential for further gains will continue to grow.

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GBP/USD exchange rate update

Good afternoon.

Sterling has started to regain the ground it lost against the dollar with exchange rates climbing by around 1% in week. In the last seven days GBP/USD has risen from a low of $1.6267 to reach a high this morning of $1.6427. A string of weaker than forecast data releases last week took some of the gloss off of the UK recovery but it has done little to dampen the pound performance. In todays post I will take a closer look at what we can expect for Sterling/dollar over the rest of this week and beyond.

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This week could be fairly volatile for the FX markets especially for GBP/USD. Over the next couple of days we will get the latest UK retail figures for January, the Bank of England (BoE)  inflation report, a speech from BoE governor Mark Carney and new Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen delivers her report on monetary policy.

Tomorrows retail figures are predicting a rise in sales for January and if that is true it will once again show that the UK economic recovery is in full swing. A positive reading for the sector could lead to further gains for the pound and push rates back towards $1.65.

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But lets not get to carried away, as with any positive usually comes a negative and if the retail figures push up sterling's value we could see Mr Carney and the BoE step in to try and weaken the pound. A few weeks ago Mr Carney made a comment that he doesn't want the pounds increased value to hinder the UK recovery by making exports more expensive and Wednesdays speech will again give him the opportunity make that point again. I will of course keep you posted of what happens over the next few days.

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GBP/USD exchange rates start to slide

Good afternoon,

Since my last post GBP/USD exchange rates have fallen by around 1% after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced they will trim another $10 billion off of the current stimulus package. On Wednesday evening FED policy makers announced they will reduce their bond buying programme from $75 billion to $65 billion a month.

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It is the second consecutive month the FED have announced a cut and the dollars value immediately increased on the back of the news. Since Tuesday GBP/USD exchange rates have fallen form $1.6621 to a low of $1.6446, To put the move into monetary terms, $200,000 would now cost nearly £1300 more than it would have done on Tuesday afternoon.

The FED have now demonstrated that they are serious about tapering their quantitative easing programme and if it continues we could see all stimulus wound up by the end of the year.



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With no data releases coming out of the UK tomorrow the pound could be open to further losses against the dollar. The U.S, have a string of data releases due out tomorrow afternoon and if they beat expectations it is likely we will see the dollar claw back some of the ground it has lost over the past few months.

If you need to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and don't want to be caught out by the sudden movements we have witnessed over the past few weeks, I have a number of tools available to help you make the most from your currency transfer.

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GBP/USD exchange rates recover

Good afternoon,

Over the last 48 hours Sterling has managed to claw back the losses it sustained on Friday afternoon following comments from Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney. GBP/USD exchange rates hit a peak today of $1.6621, meaning the cross has gained around 1% since trading closed on Friday.

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So why has Sterling recovered?

Quite simply it is down to the strength of the UK economy and the vulnerability of the U.S. economy. Sterling suffered last week as Mr Carney began to talk down the pound in an attempt to boost UK exports. The BoE are concerned that the UK's recovery is going to hinder UK businesses as products start to become more expensive as the pound continues to grow in value.

It did not take long for the pound to shake last weeks comments as the provisional figures for Q4 GDP were released this morning and came in exactly as forecast. This is excellent news for the UK economy as it shows the recovery is moving inline with analyst predictions.

Across the pond is a different story however, yesterdays New Home Sales missed the predicted figure by 43,000. This latest number highlights the issues the Federal Reserve (FED) currently face as they attempt to boost a flagging economy. It may also have an effect on their plans to cut back the on-going stimulus programme.

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Last month the FED announced they will trim the $85 billion they are currently being pumping in the U.S. economy by $10 billion. There had been hopes that future improvements in the economy would allow another cut back when FED officials meet later this week.

Unfortunately for the FED, since tapering was announced in December the U.S. has had a string of poor data releases and in certain circles there has even been talk that we could see the FED unwind part or all off the recent cutback, pushing the stimulus package back to $85 billion per month.

Although unlikely, it can't be completely ruled out and if it were to happen the result could be disastrous for the value of the dollar. Only last week we saw GBP/USD sitting at its highest level for 2 and half years ($1.6664) and if the FED do decide to increase the stimulus payment it is possible we could see GBP/USD exchange rates push to a fresh high.

But lets not get to carried away, Mr Carney is due to give another speech tomorrow and it gives the BoE governor another opportunity to try and talk down the pound. It looks as though the rest of the week could provide some volatility for GBP/USD and I of course will look to keep you posted of any major developments.

In the meantime, if you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer use the link below to complete the contact form or call me directly on 0044 (0) 1442 892 065 for a free, no-obligation consultation.

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