Monday, 10 February 2014

GBP/USD exchange rate update

Good afternoon.

Sterling has started to regain the ground it lost against the dollar with exchange rates climbing by around 1% in week. In the last seven days GBP/USD has risen from a low of $1.6267 to reach a high this morning of $1.6427. A string of weaker than forecast data releases last week took some of the gloss off of the UK recovery but it has done little to dampen the pound performance. In todays post I will take a closer look at what we can expect for Sterling/dollar over the rest of this week and beyond.

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This week could be fairly volatile for the FX markets especially for GBP/USD. Over the next couple of days we will get the latest UK retail figures for January, the Bank of England (BoE)  inflation report, a speech from BoE governor Mark Carney and new Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen delivers her report on monetary policy.

Tomorrows retail figures are predicting a rise in sales for January and if that is true it will once again show that the UK economic recovery is in full swing. A positive reading for the sector could lead to further gains for the pound and push rates back towards $1.65.

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But lets not get to carried away, as with any positive usually comes a negative and if the retail figures push up sterling's value we could see Mr Carney and the BoE step in to try and weaken the pound. A few weeks ago Mr Carney made a comment that he doesn't want the pounds increased value to hinder the UK recovery by making exports more expensive and Wednesdays speech will again give him the opportunity make that point again. I will of course keep you posted of what happens over the next few days.

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