Thursday, 5 January 2017

GBP/USD exchange rate unmoved despite more postive UK economic data

This morning has seen the UK publish stronger than forecast Services PMI data, adding to the positive readings we have seen in the Manufacturing and Construction sectors this week.

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In terms of data it has been an excellent start to 2017 for the UK economy, but so far it has had very little impact on the value of the pound.

Since the turn of the year the GBP/USD cross has been bouncing between $1.2250 and $1.2350, and unless the government suddenly announce their plans for Brexit and that they will adopt a soft approach to negotiations it is difficult to see where any gains for the pound will come from.

GBP/USD graph



Does that mean GBP/USD will continue to fall?


Since the referendum result in June the pound has lost around 18 per cent against the dollar, and as we get closer to the UK government triggering Article 50 (in order to start the official divorce proceedings) I imagine we will see some big swings in all sterling crosses.

We could see the GBP/USD cross test the $1.20 mark before the end of March if investors start selling off the pound like they did back in October.

Although, there is a chance we could see come dollar weakness in the coming months and it could provide the pound with some much needed breathing space.

The U.S. dollar's value has soared since Donald Trump won the election in November and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last month. Trump's promise to increase spending and cut taxes were seen as a positive as it would help boost inflation and could lead to further rate hikes from the Fed.

However, uncertainty over what Trumps presidency will bring is starting to prompt some market players to reverse their bets on the dollar, and if he fails to deliver on his promises we could start to see the dollar give up some ground.

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