Monday, 2 July 2012

Sterling hits it highest level for over a week, but will it last?


 
It has been a fairly choppy day for the pound/dollar cross as data from the UK, US and Euro-zone all had an impact on exchange rates. Over the course of the day cable increased by 0.5% from $1.5644 to reach a week and a half high of $1.5722 before slipping back to $1.5665 at the time of writing. With all eyes focused on Thursdays Bank of England meeting and their interest rate and quantitative easing decision the volatility is sure to continue.

With the UK economy struggling to grow there have been calls for the BoE to add to the £325 billion they have already pumped into the system. Today’s data in the UK will have added to those calls as UK manufacturing continued to slump. Although the pace of the decline eased slightly the sector still registered a mark under 50 on the Purchasing Managers index (PMI) which indicates contraction.

If the Bank of England votes in favour of more stimuli Thursday could see some major movements in the currency markets. In the past an announcement of QE has reduced the value of sterling and caused the pound to fall against a basket of currencies. Thursday decision could have the same impact which would see the GBP/USD cross fall away from the recent high.

In the US, the manufacturing sector grew for the month of June but not at the rate that had been forecast. The Manufacturing PMI released by Markit showed the sector fell from 54 in May to 52.5 in June and as the manufacturing sector in the U.S makes up large part of the total Gross Domestic Product it is a good indicator of conditions in the states.

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