Thursday, 30 March 2017

The pound continues to rise against the dollar.

Today has seen the pound rise across the board, with the GBP/USD cross rising over a cent during the course of the trading session.

 

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With little to report in terms of eco-stats or political announcements, it would seem the pound is still benefitting from Article 50 being triggered and Theresa May's positive speech yesterday.

As you can see from the graph below the GBP/USD cross has risen from $1.2405 to $1.2520, with the currency pair clawing back some of the ground it has lost since Tuesday.

If we look at today's move in monetary terms, converting £250,000 into dollars this afternoon will achieve you nearly $3000.00 more than it did first thing this morning.

 

GBP/USD graph.




Following the invocation of Article 50 yesterday markets finally have some clarity surrounding Brexit. We have now entered into the two year negotiation period, and in the words of Theresa May "there is no going back".

We also know the European Union are not going to start negotiating until the end of April, so we probably won't hear of any major developments for a couple of months. This could give the pound an opportunity to continue rising against the major currencies, especially if the UK economy continues to over perform. However, it could just be the calm before the storm.

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Wednesday, 29 March 2017

Article 50 impact on the pound


This afternoon has seen UK Prime Minister Theresa May trigger Article 50 and begin the official divorce proceedings with the European Union.

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Since Monday afternoon the pound has been slipping against the U.S. dollar, with the GBP/USD cross falling from an eight week high of $1.2614 to $1.2375 in the early hours of this morning.
Some thought the move was a sign of things to come and that the value of the pound would plummet the moment Article 50 was invoked.
However, I have been saying for weeks that I didn’t think the pound would suffer on the back of Article 50 and that today could even be a bit of a non-event……and that is exactly what has happened.
As Theresa May delivered her speech at 1230 BST, the pound actually start to rise against the dollar, with the currency pair rising almost a cent to hit $1.2475.

GBP/USD graph

 

Why has the pound held its ground?

The main reason is because today has not come as a shock. We have known for months that the UK government planned to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, and it seems it was already priced into the value of the pound.
Yesterday’s decline for the GBP/USD cross was not only down to markets positioning themselves ahead of today’s events and Sterling weakness. After a dreadful few days for the dollar, it actually managed to claw back some lost ground yesterday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve once again promised additional interest rate hikes over the course of this year.

What next?

Although the pound has managed to hold its head above water today, it is almost certainly going to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. We now have the prospect of two years of negotiations to deal with, and during that time we are going to see some big swings for the GBP/USD cross.
The dollar could also come under pressure this year as markets try to adjust to President Trump and his policies. We have already seen the dollar suffer this week after Trump failed to push through his reformed healthcare bill and with concerns mounting over the rest of his agenda, we could easily see the dollar give up the gains it has made since Trump won the election.

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Tuesday, 28 March 2017

GBP/USD slips after Fed comments

Over the course of today's trading session we have seen the U.S. dollar claw back some ground against sterling, with the GBP/USD cross falling around a cent, leaving the currency pair trading just above $1.25.

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After rising to an eight week high yesterday afternoon of $1.2614, the GBP/USD cross lost ground today after the Federal Reserve promised additional interest rate hikes during 2017.

GBP/USD graph




The comments from the Federal Reserve have helped the dollar recover slightly, and also given investors some much needed confidence following President Trump's failure to push through his new healthcare bill.

Article 50


The Brexit process will finally kick off tomorrow with UK Prime Minister Theresa May set to trigger Article 50 in order to begin the official divorce proceedings with the European Union.

Although the Federal Reserve's comments will have been the main reason behind the GBP/USD cross falling today, I do believe some of the loses will be down to investors re-positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow's announcement.

As I mentioned yesterday, some forecasts are suggesting the pound will lose even more ground once Theresa May invokes Article 50, but even though we are now less than a day away, we still don't know how the markets are going to react.

If markets have already priced in Article 50 we may not see much movement in the value of the pound. On the hand it could create a huge amount of volatility and it could be like the day after the referendum all over again.

 

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If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and are worried about the impact Article 50 could have on your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

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Monday, 27 March 2017

GBP/USD hits eight week high.

The GBP/USD cross rose to an eight week high of $1.2614 today, after the U.S. dollar weakened across the board.

 

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With Theresa May set to trigger Article 50 on Wednesday we could be set for a volatile few days for the currency pair, but for the time being at least the pound has continued to rise against the dollar and if we take into account today's move the GBP/USD cross has now climbed over 4% in the last two weeks.

GBP/USD graph




Why is the dollar weakening?


The U.S. dollar lost ground today after markets lost faith with President Trump after he failed to deliver his reformed healthcare bill.

With Trump failing with one his main campaign pledges, investors and market players are now concerned the President will also fall short on his promise to increase fiscal spending and cut taxes in order boost growth in the U.S.

The reformed healthcare bill was seen as one of the easiest things for Trump to implement, which doesn't bode well for the rest of his agenda.

What impact could Article 50 have on the pound?


Unfortunately it is a difficult question to answer. Most forecasts are suggesting the pound will lose ground the moment Theresa May invokes Article 50 to begin the official divorce proceedings.

How much ground the pound will lose is impossible to say, as it will depend if markets have already priced Article 50 into the pounds value.

We could easily see GBP/USD fall a couple of per cent if it creates more uncertainty. On the other hand if it is seen as providing clarity if could prevent the pound from falling and Wednesday could be a bit of a non-event.

 

Do you need to buy or sell dollars?


If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and are worried about the impact Article 50 could have on your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

For more information about how I can help or to find out what rate of exchange I can offer complete the contact form by clicking on the link below.

 

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Thursday, 23 March 2017

Pound hits one month high against the dollar

Today has seen the pound rise to its highest levels against the U.S. dollar since the 24th February, with the currency pair hitting $1.2527 this afternoon.

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The pound received a huge boost this morning after the latest retails sales figures smashed the predicted level of 0.4%, coming in at 1.4%, helping sterling to rise across the board.

GBP/USD graph





With concerns mounting over Article 50 being triggered next week and the impact it will have on the value of the pound, today's retail figures will give investors some extra confidence and once again show the UK economy's resilient side.

Next week will lead us into the unknown and it is almost impossible to predict what will happen in the FX markets.

Some forecasts are suggesting the pound will lose ground the moment Article 50 is triggered and that we could see GBP/USD drop below $1.20.

Others are saying that once Article 50 in invoked it will provide some clarity for the markets and could give the pound a boost.

My opinion is somewhere in the middle. I think Article 50 has already been priced into the value of the pound so I doubt we will see the pound plummet. I do think it will provide some clarity for investors but it is unlikely the pound will rise on the back of it.

We have known for months that Article 50 will be triggered at the end of March and we also know Theresa May will push ahead with a "hard" Brexit. Unless we are thrown a curve ball between now and Wednesday, Article 50 is not going to come as a surprise so there is a chance it will actually have very little impact on the pound or FX market.

 

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Wednesday, 22 March 2017

GBP/USD exchange rate falls

After rising to $1.25 in the early hours of this morning the GBP/USD cross fell almost three quarters of cent to leave the currency pair trading around $1.2430.

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As I mentioned in my post yesterday, the pound surged following the latest round of inflation figures. With inflation pushing above the Bank of England's target of 2%, expectations of a rate hike in the near future had been increasing.

Last week the Bank of England meeting minutes showed one member of the Monetary Policy Committee had voted for an immediate rate hike, while others were sitting on the fence and ready to act if needed.

However, the pound has been unable to hold onto the gains as many now think the Bank of England were simply taking a hawkish stance in the build up to Article 50 being triggered and to address the decline in consumer sentiment and spending.

GBP/USD graph.


 
 

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If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

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Tuesday, 21 March 2017

Why has the pound risen against the dollar this morning?

This morning has seen the pound surge across the board after the latest round of inflation figures
were released at 0930 (GMT).

For the best GBP/USD exchange rates click here.


Markets had been expecting the UK inflation figure to rise from 1.8% to 2.1%, but with the actual reading coming in at 2.3% it has given the pound a much needed boost following yesterday's drop.

As you can see from the graph below the GBP/USD cross has risen over a cent so far today, with the currency pair climbing from $1.2342 to its current level of $1.2459.

GBP/USD graph




Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed inflation had risen to 2.3% last month, up from 1.8% in January, with the ONS stating that rising food prices and fuel were the major drivers in pushing the inflation reading higher.

The inflation rate is at the highest we have seen since September 2013 and takes us past the Bank of England's 2% target level. Inflation levels in the UK have been climbing after Junes referendum result caused the pounds value to fall, which in turn made imported goods more expensive to buy.

This morning's news will back up MPC member Kristen Forbes recent calls for an interest rate hike in the near future, and if  Bank of England governor Mark Carney drops any hints over monetary policy when he speaks in half an hour (1030 GMT),  we could see the pound rise even further over the course of today.

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If you have a requirement to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and want to ensure you are making the most from your transfer, contact me today for a free, no-obligation currency consultation.

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