Sterling/dollar update

Good afternoon,

Sterling/dollar exchange rates continued there recent trend by falling on Friday and over the weekend. Trade opened this morning (Monday) with the GBP/USD cross at $1.5345 the lowest we have seen rates since the 5th June and now means Sterling has lost nearly four cents against the greenback in just over a week. To put the decline in exchange rates into monetary terms a £200,000 trade into dollars today will now see you receive almost $8,000 less compared to the same trade booked last week. For more information on live exchange rates click here.

It has been a quite start to the week with no data releases coming out of the UK but that did not stop the pound clawing back some of the ground it has lost over the last few days, with markets continuing react to the FED's announcement last week and the UK and China agreeing a currency swap deal. Over the course of trading today we have seen Sterling climb against a number of currencies and against the dollar rates have moved from the low of $1.5345 (mentioned above) to break back through $1.54.

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In my role of a currency broker I am often asked where I think rates will be in the future and my answer is always the same, it is almost impossible to predict which way the FX markets will move especially when it comes to the U.S dollar. Over the next few months we could see the U.S Federal Reserve reduce the amount of money they are pumping into the U.S economy to stimulate growth and if that happens we can expect the dollar to strengthen and GBP/USD exchange to rates to fall.

There has also been a lot of talk recently that the incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will look to devalue the pound when he takes over from Sir Mervyn King, but with the UK economy looking like it is on the road to recovery I think Mr Carney will have a tough time convincing the other BoE policy makers. If the UK economy continues to post better results (like we saw last week with the UK retail figures) it will only add to strength to the pound and could push GBP/USD exchange rates back towards $1.60.

Although I cannot predict where the market will be in three months time, one thing I can offer is a range of currency contracts to either target a rate that is not currently available or protect you against any adverse market movements. If you need to buy or sell dollars in the coming weeks and what to ensure you are making the most of your currency transfer then use the link below and complete the contact form for a free, no-obligation consultation.

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GBP/USD exchange rates fall by over 2 cents!

Good morning,

Sterling lost around two cents against the U.S dollar last night as FED Chairman Ben Bernanke told a press conference that the Federal Reserves current asset purchasing programme could soon be reduced. Throughout trading yesterday GBP/USD exchange rates were hovering around $1.5650 but as Mr Bernanke delivered his thoughts the dollar gained strength to bring the mid-market price back down to $1.5450, the lowest we have seen the cross the 6th June. For more information on live rates of exchange click here

The U.S Federal Reserve is currently pumping $85bn (£54bn) a month in to the economy by purchasing government bonds in an attempt to lower interest rates and increasing spending, Since the asset purchasing began the U.S dollar has suffered which has seen a rise in exchange rates for the pound and euro.

Yesterdays speech by Mr Bernanke gave us an insight into the FED's future plans and having said that the economic outlook in the U.S is improving the FED could look to cut back on the amount of asset purchases over the next six months with a view to ending the programme by the middle of 2014.

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As with anything we will have to wait and see if this actually happens and Mr Bernanke was keen to stress that an end to the programme will only happen if the U.S economy continues to improve. If and when we see a reduction another drop in exchange rates could be possible, as I have said before a number of the forecasts I receive are still indicating we will see Sterling-dollar fall to $1.47 in the next three months.

In the UK all eyes seem to be on the Bank of England, with Sir Mervyn King stepping down at the end of the month and Mark Carney due to take over as the head of the central bank, the general feeling seems to be that Mr Carney will look to reduce the pounds value which would prompt a drop in exchange rates across the board.

The difficulty Mr Carney will face is trying to persuade the other eight MPC members, something that Mervyn King has failed to do over the last few months. Yesterday's release of the BoE minutes once again showed the Mr King has voted in favour of more Quantitative Easing but with six policy makers voting against increasing the current level of QE, Mr Carney may have his work cut out.

If you are a business or private client and have a requirement to buy or sell dollars then I can help you make the most of your currency transfer. By using the link below and completing the contact form I can talk you through the different options that are available and help you achieve a better rate of exchange than you would get from your bank.

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Pound-Dollar exchange rates rise again

Good afternoon,

The last 24 hours have seen another rise for the GBP/USD cross with exchange rates reaching a fresh high of $1.5684. Today's high moved us past the $1.5679 we witnessed last Thursday which means we have come close to a 4% rise in exchange rates since the start of June. To put the move in monetary terms a £200,000 trade will now see you receive an extra $11,500 compared to the same trade booked less than two weeks ago. For more information on live rates of exchange click here.

In my last post I wrote that the mid-market price for GBP/USD had fallen back to just below $1.55 following the better than expected jobs report in America. However, the gains for the greenback were short lived as the dollar weakened yesterday amid growing speculation that the FED will look to reduce its bond purchasing programme in the next few months. The rumours caused the dollar to fall against the pound and the euro with Sterling-Dollar rates jumping back over 1.56 and Euro-Dollar reaching a high of 1.3315.

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Another reason for Sterling's positive move today was down to the latest unemployment figures from the UK. In a report published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) the number of people out of work for the three months up to April fell by 5,000. There was also a surprise drop in the number of people claiming Job-Seekers Allowance, claimants fell by 8,500 in May compared to the previous month and today's figures are another boost for the UK economy following a string of positive data releases over the last couple of weeks.

Can we expect Sterling to keep on climbing?

After all the positive reports and data releases we have seen in the last month you would think GBP/USD exchange rates could carrying on gaining and push towards the $1.60 mark we saw through the latter part of last year. If it was not for Mark Carney taking over the Bank of England next month then I would be inclined to agree. Over the last few months the UK has avoided going into recession, seen a increase in manufacturing and production and with today's data showing that unemployment is falling all the signs are that the UK is on the road to recovery.

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However, many believe that Mr Carney wants the UK's recovery to be export driven and unfortunately that will not happen while the pound is gaining strength against the dollar and euro. It is thought that when Mr Carney is handed the ropes to the central bank he will look to try and devalue the pound in order to make UK products more appealing to our largest trade partner, the Euro-zone.

If that happens we can expect to see the pound lose any ground it has made against the major currencies since March, in fact some of the forecasts from the big UK banks believe we could see the GBP/USD cross fall back below $1.47 in the next three months.

If you need to buy or sell dollars in the coming months and would like to know how to protect yourself against adverse market movements or would like to know how much money I can save you compared to your bank then use the link below and complete the contact form for a free, no-obligation consultation.

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Sterling dollar exchange rate update

Good afternoon,

After last Thursday's highs which saw GBP/USD hit a four month high ($1.5679) Sterling slipped back slightly on Friday following the positive U.S job report released in the afternoon. The report showed that 175,000 jobs were created in May, 5,000 more than originally forecast which brought exchange rates back down to just below $1.55. For more information on live exchange rates click here.

Today (Monday) has seen exchange rates sit within a half point range with the high for Sterling/dollar coming in at $1.5570. It has been a relatively quite start to the week with no real data releases of note coming out of the UK or the U.S. Tomorrow may bring some volatility to the FX markets as we see the UK Industrial and Manufacturing figures for May along with the latest GDP estimate.

Following the positive Services Sector numbers last week (which I mentioned in my last post) there was some more encouraging news for the UK this morning as a report from Ernst & Young (one of the UK's top economic forecasters) showed that consumers in the UK are set to spend more in the coming months.

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This latest report once again shows that the UK maybe on the road to recovery and may just change the mindset of those looking into ways they can boost the UK economy. Talk has been a lot of talk recently that the Bank of England (BoE) will look to extend its existing Quantitative Easing (QE) program when Mark Carney takes over the central bank. If policy makers were to opt for more stimulus we can expect to see Sterling's value fall over the coming months which in turn will drive down exchange rates.

The recent upturn in the UK economy could just give the pound some much needed breathing space as it wasn't that long ago that Sterling/dollar was down at $1.48. However, even if the BoE leave QE as it is there are other avenues they could go down to ensure the UK does not slip towards another recession.

Some of the forecasts I receive on a daily basis are still expecting GBP/USD exchange rates to fall as low as $1.47 in the next three months, this is only one opinion and as I have often said the currency markets are almost impossible to try and predict. If the UK continues to perform in the coming weeks and if the U.S keep their existing QE program at it's current level there is every change we could see exchange rates push back towards $1.60.

If you would like more information on how I can help or the exchange rates I can offer use the link below to complete the contact form for a free, no-obligation consultation.

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GBP/USD exchange rates break through $1.54

Good afternoon,

Sterling/dollar exchange rates broke through $1.54 today for the first time since the 10th May, the gains the pound made against the dollar followed stronger UK services sector numbers and a string of weaker than forecast data releases in the States. For more information on the live exchange rates click here.

GBP/USD rates started the day with the mid-market price hovering just above $1.53 but after the UK data release this morning the pound climbed over half a point against the greenback to reach $1.5365. The gains did not stop there as worse than expected U.S factory orders were one of the factors to weaken the dollar and push exchange rates to the highest we have seen in almost a month.

This morning (Wednesday) once again provided some positive news for the UK as figures released by Markit and CIPS (Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply) showed the UK's services sector grew at it fastest pace for twelve months. The services sector makes up around 75% of the UK economy and proves that the UK could be on the road to recovery. The news could also go some way to dampen rumors that the Bank of England (BoE) will look to boost economic growth by adding to their existing Quantitative Easing (QE) program.

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Any talk of further stimulus normally has a negative impact on Sterling's value and if there is any chance of more QE when the BoE meet tomorrow the gains we have seen in rates over the last few days will quickly disappear.

The next month or so is going to be critical in Sterling's performance, not only against the dollar but against every other currency. As I mentioned in my last post there has been a lot of talk recently that when Mark Carney takes over as the BoE governor one of the first things he will look into is how to boost UK exports. One way way to achieve this would be to reduce the pounds value to make products more affordable, if that happens we can expect GBP/USD exchange rates to drop quickly, it is hard to say by how much but it would not come as a surprise if rates dropped well below $1.50.

If you need to buy or sell dollars in the coming months getting the timing right on your transfer could save you thousands. If you would like more information on how I can help or would like to know what rates of exchange I can offer, use the link below and complete the contact form for a free, no-obligation consultation.

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GBP/USD exchange rates climb by over a cent due to poor U.S data.

Good afternoon,

Sterling has gained over a cent against the dollar today on the back of some weak U.S data. Exchange rates climbed from a low of $1.5193 to a high of $1.5369 over the course of trading today but with so much attention on the Bank of England, the next few weeks could well see exchange rates move in either direction. For more information on the live market prices click here.

Sterling's gains today are mainly down the U.S Manufacturing PMI numbers which were released this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI numbers are a significant indicator of the overall business conditions for the U.S economy and can cause big swings in exchange rates. A result over 50 indicates growth in the sector but with today's data showing a score of only 49.00 means the sector contracted and caused the U.S dollar to weaken.

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There was also some positive news from the UK today but it didn't have the same impact on the markets as the U.S data. The UK's manufacturing numbers were released this morning which showed the sector had grown at its fastest pace for over twelve months. The figures showed that UK manufacturing climbed from 50.2 in April to 51.3 in May which prompted a small rise for Sterling against a number of currencies.

So what next for Sterling/dollar?

On Thursday the Bank of England policy makers will sit down for their monthly meeting. There have been calls in recent weeks for more Quantitative Easing (QE) in the UK and Thursday's meeting to discuss Interest Rates and QE will the last for current Governor Sir Mervyn King. In recent months Sir Mervyn has been one of three MPC members to vote in favor of more stimulus and he will be keen to push through what he believes before handing over the reins to to Mark Carney.

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If no QE is announced on Thursday then we could see sterling claw back some of the ground it has lost against the dollar in recent weeks, but any gains we see for the pound could be short lived as many believe that Mr Carney will look to devalue the pound to aid UK exports when he takes control on the 1st July. In fact one article I read indicated that the pounds value should be cut by a third and that GBP/USD exchange rates could fall back below $1.40!

I personally don't think that will happen but I do believe that we could see exchange rates fall back into the high $1.40's that we witnessed at the start of March. The FX markets move on rumors as much as facts and any indication that more QE was on the cards could see sterling weaken drastically in the coming weeks.

If you have requirement to buy or sell dollars knowing what tools are available to help you make the most of your currency transfer could potentially save you thousands. If you would like more information the different types of currency contract, the currency markets or what rates of exchange I can offer then use the link below and complete the contact form for a free, no obligation consultation.

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